The Eller College of Management at the University of Arizona just released its summer issue compiled by Forecasting Project Director, Marshall J. Vest.
Vest begins by stating, “The worst of the financial crisis and the economic downturn appears to be behind us as data for the second quarter begins to arrive. Consumers, investors, and businesses all appear to be tired of hunkering down and are beginning to re-engage.”
It expects the nationwide recession to end by summer and predicts a “gradual recovery”. It goes on to project Arizona will “lag behind” that gradual recovery by as many as two quarters because of the depressed real estate.Arizona residential homebuilding has come to a screeching halt. Only 4,000 units were allowed in the first quarter and only about 900 of them were multi-family. Since the high point in the summer of 2005 the number of permits has plunged by 91%.
There is some good to report – infrastructure spending, spurred by the Federal stimulus package is expected to help prop the construction industry in the coming months. IN fact, Arizona was just singled out by Vice President Joe Biden for being way ahead of schedule in doling out millions of dollars in stimulus money to be used by the Arizona Department of Transportation.
This is a very thorough and lengthy report – to read more go here.